In our Fantasy Premier League newsletter you will find lots of our essential articles in the lead up to the deadline. We also share our EXCLUSIVE from Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar: Should we sell Haaland to buy Salah? Is it time to replace Calvert-Lewin?

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Should we Sell Haaland for Salah?

A: Manchester City continued their negative run with a 4-1 loss to Sporting Lisbon midweek, with Erling Haaland (£15.3m) missing a penalty. The Norwegian also missed another big chance and racked up about 1.43 total xG out of Man City’s total of 2.23.

Contrast that to Mohamed Salah (£12.8m), where the Egyptian notched just 0.21 xG out of a total of 3.79 xG for Liverpool but did bag two assists from five chances created. The Egyptian’s efficiency has just been on another level this season.

A look at the StatsBomb data for the first four Gameweeks, when Haaland scored nine goals, showed that his post-shot xG was 5.69 compared to his non-penalty xG of 3.6. So that’s an ‘execution’ addition of 2.08, ie the finishing skill being applied by Haaland.

A look at the data now for the last six Gameweeks shows that Haaland has generated a post-shot xG of 5.73 from a non-penalty xG of 4.90, so the ‘execution’ addition has only been 0.73. That indicates that while Haaland has been unlucky to score just two goals from 4.90 xG, the finishing has been less effective from the Norwegian compared to earlier in the season. So, FPL managers who have held him have been unlucky to be at the receiving end of this dip.

The next two opponents for Haaland are likely to provide him plenty of scoring opportunities. As the below image shows, Brighton are in the bottom five for non-penalty xG conceded over the last six Gameweeks. We know about Spurs’ defensive frailties, especially against the top sides. Meanwhile, Salah’s next opponents Villa are sitting in fourth. 

I would recommend giving Haaland at least the next game and then reassessing. However, if you are getting other immediate upgrades elsewhere – say, the money from moving Haaland to Salah also means you get an easy route to Cole Palmer (£11.0m) next week – then the move makes sense. 

Is it time to replace Calvert-Lewin?

A: Dominic Calvert-Lewin‘s (£5.9m) next two opponents, West Ham United and Brentford, sit in the bottom eight of the above table. So, in terms of fixture match-ups, they’re still good. We could make a case to hold him but as we saw in the last game, his minutes are no longer secure. Subbed at 62 minutes, Beto (£5.0m) once again impressed in his cameo, hit the woodwork and was much more of a menace than his positional rival. He simply has to go. The only situation it would be reasonable to hold him is if you had fires elsewhere and it would take a hit to move him on. 

In terms of replacements, if you can afford it, I like the short-term punt on Rasmus Hojlund (£6.9m). Manchester United play Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Everton over the next three Gameweeks, with the latter two under the new manager Ruben Amorim. The next best option would be Matheus Cunha (£6.7m), with secure minutes and a great entry point this week against Southampton.

If you are looking for replacements closer to or below Calvert-Lewin’s price, I like Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.6m). I’ve been impressed with him so far. As the image below shows in terms of finishing execution, he is sitting fourth amongst forwards over the last four Gameweeks.

With Raul Jimenez (£5.8m), I have some concerns about his minutes in a busy December period. Yoane Wissa’s (£6.0m) fixtures also take a turn after the next three Gameweeks. Evanilson (£5.9m) is a decent shout but I wouldn’t feel comfortable doubling up there if you already have Antoine Semenyo (£5.6m) 

Danny Welbeck (£5.9m) is also an option but I think with so many games in December, there are some fitness concerns there. Joao Pedro (£5.4m) also likely will see his minutes managed over the festive period. 

@FPLReaction discusses his plans for the round ahead, sharing his thoughts around selling Haaland to bring in Salah:

We look at which players are a buy sell and keep for Gameweek 11 here:

You can also find the top 10 predicted player points for the round ahead here:

We highlighted the best teams and players to invest in for the rounds ahead:

It’s Fouls week in FPL Challenge, so here are our top tips and an expert team reveal to help you come out on top:

Be sure to check out all of our latest articles over at Fantasy Football Community.