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Looking to Gameweek 27 and Pro Pundit Pras Talks Chip Strategy

Fantasy Football Community

2023/24

FFC continues in its quest to deliver you content from across the board. From Serie A Fantasy and Bundesliga Fantasy to UCL Fantasy and MLS Fantasy we cover it all.

Here our main focus is on Fantasy Premier League!

We start today with an exclusive piece from highly rated expert Pras. He discusses different chip strategies and shares his own plans.

Newsletter exclusive: Pras Talks Chip Strategy

Finally, the fifth round of the FA Cup is out of the way. We now know that only four games will go ahead in Gameweek 29, which are as follows:

  • Burnley v Brentford

  • Fulham v Spurs

  • West Ham v Aston Villa

  • Luton v Nottingham Forest

This means that the blanking teams will all double between Gameweeks 34-37.

Furthermore, from the FA Cup quarter-final draw, we can also start to draw logical predictions on who reaches the semi-final of the FA Cup. Whoever does cannot double in Gameweek 34, when the semis take place.

Here’s the draw:

  • Man Utd v Liverpool

  • Man City v Newcastle

  • Wolves v Coventry

  • Chelsea v Leicester

The draw is quite helpful for forward planning, in a sense that you can reasonably assume (yes, emphasis on “reasonably”) that Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Wolves make it through to the semi-final. 

On this basis then, I wanted to discuss the pros and cons for three of the popular chip strategies, and where I am leaning for my own team.

FREE HIT IN GAMEWEEK 29
WILDCARD IN GAMEWEEK 35
BENCH BOOST IN GAMEWEEK 37

A lot of teams aren’t set up well for Gameweek 29. Rightly, there has been emphasis on Arsenal, Man City, Liverpool and even Chelsea/Man Utd to an extent recently.

When you add to this the fact a Gameweek 29 blanking team, Bournemouth, have such a good double in Gameweek 28, it is understandable why some teams will find it hard to navigate these four fixtures without a chip.

One way is to Free Hit and avoid these teams altogether.

STRATEGY
  • Free Hit in the big blank and thus delay the Wildcard to later on, i.e. closer to the Gameweek 34/37 doubles.

  • Can dead–end the team to Double Gameweek 34 that could involve “bad” teams like Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Man Utd, Everton, Bournemouth etc (note – we will not know the exact teams that double until Gameweek 30/31).

PROS
  • Ability to maximize on Double Gameweek 28, by focusing on Bournemouth players with better fixtures instead of Luton players.

  • Limit the number of hits required around this period.

  • Only bring the fringe players from Nottingham Forest, Luton, Brentford and West Ham for one week and not get “stuck” with them.

  • Wildcard close to the Bench Boost to maximize the latter’s potential and insure against late change in motivations (“on the beach”/teams focused in Europe) or injuries.

CONS
  • Wildcard in Gameweek 35 shouldn’t be drastically different from doing it in Gameweek 30/31 + three/four free transfers as no new information on doubles or blanks will come after Gameweek 30/31.

  • Limited upside in the actual Free Hit week. The upside comes from avoiding hits, and upside in Gameweek 28, as above.

  • May need to hold players through tougher fixtures eg. Watkins vs Man City/Arsenal, Saka v Man City, Haaland v Liverpool/Arsenal. 

  • Possibly go without one of the big hitters (Son, Salah, Haaland, Saka) between Gameweek 30-34.

  • Your end-goal team gets more and more expensive to afford, especially the key bench players for Double Gameweek 37, the longer one waits to Wildcard.

IMPORTANT TEAMS
  • Bournemouth would be key since not only do they double in Gameweek 28 but they have good fixtures after Gameweek 29 and could even double in Gameweek 34.

  • Newcastle – a team not in form but good fixtures before and after Gamewek 29 and a likely double in Gameweek 34 means they are one to hold/target.

WILDCARD IN GAMEWEEK 31
FREE HIT IN GAMEWEEK 34
BENCH BOOST IN GAMEWEEK 37

STRATEGY
  • Navigate the double and blanks and Wildcard out of it by bringing back players from the “big” teams – as these are the teams that double in Gameweek 37.

  • Wildcard in Gameweek 30/31 would focus on getting the best players like Salah, Haaland, Saka, Son, and Palmer, as well as good defenders, back and take out Luton, Aston Villa, West Ham etc.

PROS
  • Have a full set of confirmed Double Gameweek 34 fixtures and later (by inference) by the time you hit the Wildcard.

  • Free Hit in the week where “bad” teams double, and hold the good players from good teams around it.

  • Allows a nice dead-end into Gameweek 30 as teams brought in for Gameweek 29 also have a good fixture in Gameweek 30, eg Spurs play Luton, Villa play Wolves, Fulham play Sheff Utd.

  • Avoid the top-of-the-table clashes, eg. little to no exposure in Man City v Arsenal and Liverpool v Man City.

CONS
  • Relatively far away from Bench Boost in Gameweek 37 and things can change.

  • 3-4 hits and putting out 9/10 players in Gameweek 29 already gives away ~15-20 points advantage to those using a chip in the period. No guarantee the future upside is as high.

  • Many teams simply can’t get to this route without several (eg. more than four) hits, which is suboptimal.

IMPORTANT TEAMS
  • Luton – as dull as it sounds, this strategy will need to go heavier on Luton instead of Bournemouth, since the former also play in Gameweek 29.

  • Post Wildcard, the focus would be on the bigger teams complemented by cheaper players doubling in Gameweek 37, eg Everton and Wolves.

WILDCARD IN GAMEWEEK 27/28
FREE HIT IN GAMEWEEK 34
BENCH BOOST IN GAMEWEEK 37

STRATEGY
  • Wildcard now, either due to piling injuries or capturing the opportunity in front of us. 

  • Wildcard in Gameweek 28 may be a better window than Gameweek 27, if doable, as Man City and Arsenal have great fixtures in Gameweek 27. A Wildcard would contain fewer players from these teams. It also gives an opportunity to assess the fitness of Salah, Darwin etc.

  • Set up with good players complemented by players from Bournemouth, Brentford and Luton.

PROS
  • Maximize the Double Gameweek 28 by getting 5-6 players from Bournemouth/Luton and possibly also navigate Gameweek 29 chipless.

  • Avoid hits in the near term.

CONS
  • Get “stuck” with players from Luton, Brentford, and even Aston Villa with bad fixtures after Gameweek 30.

  • Very far away from Bench Boost in Gameweek 37.

  • Going in without full knowledge of how the fixtures will land in Gameweeks 34 + 37.

MY PLANS

After the Son transfer this week, I have six players for Blank Gameweek 29.

I will look to add two more, possibly a Luton player next week with a hit and two more in Gameweek 29 (eg. Maddison and Toney) with a hit.

That’s 10, and I think I will be happy with that.

Therefore, my current thinking is to save the Free Hit and Wildcard in Gameweek 31. This could change, however, if there is a setback or injury to one of my six, thereby derailing the Gameweek 29 dead-end.

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